Asteroid Alert: NASA Drops Impact Risk to Near Zero, But There’s One Small Catch

 

NASA has all but ruled out asteroid 2024 YR4 as a danger to Earth, reducing its impact probability to just 0.004% in 2032.

However, a small risk remains for the Moon. Scientists are seizing the moment to study the asteroid further, turning what was once a potential threat into a valuable learning opportunity for planetary defense.

NASA Lowers Impact Risk of Asteroid 2024 YR4

NASA has significantly reduced the risk of asteroid 2024 YR4 impacting Earth in the foreseeable future. When first discovered, the asteroid had a small but noteworthy chance of colliding with our planet in 2032. However, as more observations were submitted to the Minor Planet Center, scientists at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) refined their calculations. Their latest models now estimate the asteroid’s probability of impacting Earth on December 22, 2032, at just 0.004%, confirming there is no significant risk for at least the next century.

Further observations have narrowed uncertainties about the asteroid’s future path, showing that its projected location on December 22, 2032, is now farther from Earth.

Moon Still in the Path?

There still remains a very small chance for asteroid 2024 YR4 to impact the Moon on December 22, 2032. That probability is currently 1.7%.

NASA will continue to observe asteroid 2024 YR4 with observatories funded by its Planetary Defense Coordination Office, and NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope will observe the asteroid in March to further gain insights about its size for scientific purposes.

A Test for Planetary Defense

While this asteroid no longer poses a significant impact hazard to Earth, 2024 YR4 provided an invaluable opportunity for experts at NASA and its partner institutions to test planetary defense science and notification processes. The latest data on all known near-Earth asteroids that could pose an impact hazard to Earth will continue to be available at NASA’s automated Sentry page.

website: popularscientist.com

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